BYD Primed to Challenge Tesla for Electric Vehicle Supremacy in 2024, TrendForce Forecasts

According to TrendForce’s latest analysis, global sales of NEVs (New Energy Vehicles), spanning BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles), PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles), and FCVs (Fuel Cell Vehicles), are projected to reach 13.03 million units in 2023, marking a growth rate of 29.8%.** This growth, while significant, represents a notable deceleration from the 54.2% surge observed in 2022. Of these, BEVs account for 9.11 million units, with a growth rate of 24%, while PHEVs reach 3.91 million units, boasting a more substantial growth rate of 45%.

China maintains its stronghold as the epicenter of NEV sales, commanding approximately 60% of the global market share. Nevertheless, growth in the Chinese market is showing signs of slowing down due to the high base effect. With limited sales growth in other regions failing to offset this deceleration, NEV sales growth is expected to taper off, with an estimated 16.87 million units projected to be sold in 2024, accompanied by a growth rate of 29.5%.

In 2023, Tesla continues to dominate the BEV segment with a market share of 19.9%, closely trailed by BYD, which has significantly narrowed the sales gap with Tesla to a mere 248,000 units.** BYD’s remarkable progress is attributed to its consistent performance in the Chinese market and its expanding international footprint facilitated by the establishment of overseas bases. TrendForce analysts are confident in BYD’s potential to challenge Tesla’s hegemony in the BEV market for the current year.

Meanwhile, GAC Aion secures the third position for the first time, with SAIC-GM-Wuling and Volkswagen slipping to fourth and fifth place respectively.** Luxury automotive titans BMW and Mercedes-Benz intensify their electrification endeavors, securing the sixth and eighth positions respectively. Additionally, Hyundai Group, comprising Hyundai and KIA, maintains their positions through sustained sales growth.

In the PHEV market, BYD and Li Auto emerge as the top two contenders, with Li Auto boasting an impressive 182% growth rate in 2023.** Li Auto’s rapid market share expansion is propelled by its strategic focus on mid-size and large SUVs, catering to family-oriented consumers. Traditional powerhouses BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volvo Cars occupy the third to fifth spots, albeit facing declines in Europe due to sluggish PHEV sales.

Jeep experiences a notable 33% surge, climbing to the sixth position. Furthermore, Chinese brands such as Changan, Denza, and Deepal make their debut in the top ten rankings, underscoring the competitive advantage of the Chinese market.** TrendForce predicts that as Chinese brands accelerate PHEV exports, established automakers will face intensified pressure on growth margins.

As China’s domestic growth trajectory slows, automakers are increasingly establishing overseas bases, diversifying their production sites beyond China.** TrendForce underscores the significant advantages held by Chinese brands in terms of vehicle diversity, pricing, and smart features. Overcoming challenges associated with reliance on a single production site is crucial for sustained growth. However, the potential escalation of trade barriers may hinder the global spread of Chinese NEVs.

In the United States, a ban on Chinese-made battery components effective from 2024 threatens the eligibility of many EV models for subsidies.** While automakers like GM offer equivalent federal tax credits of $7,500, disruptions in the Chinese supply chain hinder efforts to drive down EV prices, posing additional challenges for the industry.

Source: TrendForce